2025 has been a tumultuous year for the base oils and finished lubricants industry. Geopolitical upheavals, tariff negotiations, as well as vessel attacks and the threat of increased sanctions have all impacted trade flows and base oil spot prices.
However, the headline grabbing news has had a more minimal impact on the industry than expected. The imposition of tariffs caused more limited disruptions than anticipated and mostly on associated commodities such as chemicals and additives. The key spot price drivers of the year are more related to conventional supply, demand and feedstock dynamics. Stricter regulations, in the form of more stringent emission standards in both the EU and US are also likely to impact future demand.
